WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer prices probably jumped in May for the third straight month, heightening concerns for the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve and underscoring the threat that rising costs pose for the Trump administration as midterm elections near.

Inflation is expected to reach 4.2% in May from a year earlier when the Labor Department reports last month’s figures Wednesday, according to a survey of economists by data provider FactSet The annual increase would be up from the 3.8% reading in April. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to have risen a hefty 0.5%, slightly below the 0.6% increase in April.

Inflation had been cooling before President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs in April 2025, which lifted the costs of many goods. Prices have since surged after the Iran war made oil and gas more expensive, making affordability a key political issue. The main question now is whether inflation will fade if the war ends and oil and gas prices fall, or will it persist even after the war.

Some economists worry that prices are still elevated in areas that should be unaffected by gas costs, such as dental care, motor vehicle repair, and other services. At the same time, wages are rising only modestly, which should reduce pressure on firms to raise prices further.

To that end, economists and financial markets will closely watch core prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories. Core inflation is forecast to have risen 0.3% in May from April, according to FactSet, a pace that is consistent with annual readings far higher than the Fed’s 2% target. On an annual basis, core inflation may tick higher to 2.9% from 2.8%.

Gas prices have fallen this month, but they rose in May because of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has choked off about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Prices at the pump rose, on average, from about $4.04 in mid-April to $4.49 in mid-May, according to the Energy Information Administration.

They have since fallen back to $4.16 on average nationwide, according to AAA, which could lead to a cooler inflation reading in June.

More expensive diesel fuel has lifted shipping costs, with companies like UPS and FedEx adding fuel surcharges in the past couple of months. That is likely to push up grocery prices, which jumped 0.7% in April and are 2.9% higher than a year ago.

Stubbornly high inflation has shifted the debate among Fed policymakers, who had signaled at the start of the year that they were inclined to cut their key rate twice more this year. Now, more officials are saying they expect the Fed’s next move will likely be a hike rather than a cut. When the Fed boosts its key rate, it typically over time leads to higher borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and business loans.

Wall Street investors expect the Fed to raise rates in December, according to futures prices tracked by CME Fedwatch.

Despite higher inflation, the job market appears to be improving, with hiring increasing to a healthy level in May, and the economy is still growing. These positive signs suggest the Fed doesn’t need to cut rates to stimulate growth and hiring. They also signal that the Fed’s rate isn’t so high that it is weighing on the economy. Yet some officials want rates to cool growth a bit, because that can bring down inflation.

Interest rates on two-year and 10-year Treasury securities have increased since Friday’s jobs report showed hiring accelerated in May, a sign investors expect inflation may remain elevated and eventually require Fed rate hikes.

Higher inflation has put the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, in a difficult spot. He advocated for rate cuts last year and was chosen by Trump to replace Jerome Powell, after Trump relentlessly criticized Powell for not reducing rates more quickly. Yet for now, Trump and White House officials are mainly arguing that interest rates don’t need to increase, rather than demanding further cuts.

Some economists still see tariffs pushing up some costs, particularly clothing, which jumped 0.6% in April and are 4.2% more expensive than a year ago. Pricier fuel may have also led to higher airline fares last month, which would lift core inflation.

AMARILLO (AP) — A Texas judge granted Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby a temporary injunction that clears the way for him to play this fall despite being declared ineligible by the NCAA for wagering on college sports, including bets made on his own team while he was at Indiana.

The decision sent shock waves across college sports since bans for gambling are a bedrock rule of the NCAA and many professional sports.

The NCAA said it strongly disagrees with the ruling and “is deeply concerned about the damaging, far-reaching and broadly destabilizing ramifications of this outcome — which undermines and corrupts the integrity of sports.” The NCAA said it would appeal to the Court of Appeals for the Seventh District of Texas in Amarillo.

Sorsby, whose school said he has a gambling problem that he is addressing through treatment, will miss the Red Raiders’ first two games next season under a judge-approved penalty that had been proposed by his attorneys. The NCAA, which usually handles such punishments, was not involved.

The ruling by Judge Ken Curry prevents the NCAA from being able to block the transfer QB’s eligibility for what will be his final college season with a team among the favorites to win the Big 12 Conference and return to the College Football Playoff for a second consecutive season.

Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark said the ramifications of the ruling “could have broad impacts across college athletics, creating great concern amongst our membership.” He called a meeting this week of his league’s athletic directors and executive board, and been in touch with NCAA President Charlie Baker.

Texas Tech opens the season on Sept. 5 at home against Abilene Christian. The Red Raiders then play Oregon State before their Big 12 opener at home on Sept. 18 against Houston.

“I’m very grateful for the endless support I have received throughout this entire process,” Sorsby posted on social media. “I am also grateful for the chance to rejoin my teammates. This opportunity comes with the responsibility to remain focused on my personal growth, the ability to learn from this experience, and to be able to use my situation to help others going forward.”

The judge’s ruling

Curry held a two-hour hearing last week in the 99th District Court in Lubbock County, where Texas Tech is located. In his decision, he wrote that he agreed Sorsby would suffer “a probable, imminent and irreparable injury” if he cannot practice or play for the Red Raiders.

The injunction comes with conditions that Sorsby must continue counseling for his gambling and to participate in peer support through Gamblers Anonymous or a similar group. He also must continue treatment to address “the underlying anxiety that served as the primary driver of (his) gambling behavior.”

Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt said a comprehensive support structure, including clinical care, monitoring and compliance checks, will remain fully in place for Sorsby during his time at the school.

“As we have said before, we do not believe that the circumstances of Brendan’s case warranted permanent ineligibility,” Hocutt said. “As he returns to our football program, we remain committed to supporting Brendan’s recovery and ensuring his compliance with the court’s order.”

Kansas State athletic director Gene Taylor told Yahoo Sports he was disappointed by the ruling.

“It is absolutely devastating for him to be able to play when every other sport, no matter the level, deems an athlete ineligible or they are punished severely for betting on their team,” he told the outlet.

Nebraska athletic director Troy Dannen confirmed to The Associated Press that his coaches have been told to not schedule Texas Tech in any sport, as first reported by Yahoo Sports. Georgia also will not schedule Texas Tech in any sport, according to multiple media outlets.

“This may be one of those seminal moments we’ve all been waiting for,” Dannen said in a text to the AP.

A significant setback against the NCAA

NCAA attorney Taylor Askew had said during the hearing that allowing Sorsby to play another college season would provide “reputable harm” to the governing body.

“Saying the NCAA is now the first league in America that allows you, without punishment, to bet on its own contests, that’s a reputable harm to the NCAA,” Askew told the court. “This would be the first league in America that does that. … We should not say for the first time serial gambling is OK.”

Court records show that Sorsby has acknowledged making thousands of impermissible bets totaling at least $90,000 during his time at Indiana, Cincinnati and Texas Tech. That included 40 bets on Indiana while he was a freshman there in 2022, though none on any of the games he played in with the Hoosiers.

While some guidelines for penalties related to gambling have changed in recent years, NCAA rules still call for a permanent loss of eligibility for any player who wagered on his own team.

Sorsby was at Indiana for two seasons before the past two at Cincinnati.

The Texas native transferred in January to Texas Tech for a reported multimillion-dollar deal. The Red Raiders brought him in to be the starting quarterback when trying to defend their first Big 12 title and return to the CFP.

What led to the NCAA investigation

According to court filings, on March 11 the NCAA received a tip about Sorsby’s gambling activity from an online sportsbook, which had been informed by law enforcement. Texas Tech was notified April 14 that an investigation was underway by the NCAA.

Jeffrey Kessler, the attorney who negotiated the $2.8 billion House settlement against the NCAA and now represents Sorsby, told the court that the 22-year-old quarterback has a diagnosed addiction and anxiety-driven compulsion. Sorsby recently completed a monthlong stay in a residential treatment program in Arizona that he entered after the start of the NCAA’s investigation.

According to a clinician who treated Sorsby, Kessler said, not allowing the quarterback to play would hurt his mental health and hamper his recovery.

The NCAA in its statement Monday said it is “committed to supporting student-athlete mental health but must continue to aggressively defend against actions that defraud college athletics and threaten competitive integrity, such as betting on one’s own sport.”

The lawsuit and NCAA appeals

The injunction came in Sorsby’s lawsuit filed May 18 against the NCAA seeking the restoration of his eligibility. That case was initially assigned to District Judge Phillip Hays, a Lubbock native and Texas Tech graduate who later recused himself. Curry is a retired judge from Tarrant County, nearly 300 miles away.

Since the filing of that lawsuit, the NCAA has twice denied Texas Tech’s petition to restore the quarterback’s eligibility.

When the school on May 26 revealed the first denial and its intent to appeal, university president Lawrence Schovanec wrote in a letter to the Texas Tech community that the school felt “the NCAA’s ruling should be reversed or modified.”

That comment illustrates the difficult landscape for the NCAA, which has lost multiple court cases challenging rules that were put in place by the very schools that make up its membership. Many focus on eligibility, with athletes contending they should be allowed to play and continue to earn money that was made available under the House ruling.

The NCAA is on the verge of approving a new eligibility model following meetings among stakeholders and even President Donald Trump. The NCAA continues to also seek limited antitrust protections from Congress in hopes of eliminating or at least smoothing the state-by-state rulings that have thrown the industry into chaos.

“There is no better example of why targeted intervention from Congress is necessary,” Baker said on social media after the ruling. “When you have schools and deep-pocketed supporters willing to look the other way on the glaring integrity threat of betting on your own team — and judges whose rulings effectively strip away our ability to stop them — only Congress can equip the NCAA to apply this common sense rule to everyone fairly and consistently. The Protect College Sports Act would empower the NCAA to enforce rules including the gambling restrictions — it’s needed now more than ever.”