DES MOINES, IA – Iowa’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 3.1 percent in November, while the labor force participation rate held steady at 67.7 percent and more than 500 jobs were added. The U.S. labor force participation rate fell to 62.1 percent in November and the national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent.

Despite surveyed employers reporting that they added jobs, the number of unemployed Iowans rose to 52,400 in November from 49,700 in October, but 12,700 lower than one year ago.

The total number of working Iowans decreased by 3,400 in November to 1,659,000 but remains 48,300 higher than one year ago.

“Historical trends during the holiday season and throughout the winter months tend to show a rise in unemployment. On balance, Iowa employers kept hiring in November despite indications about the potential for future downturns,” said Beth Townsend, Director of Iowa Workforce Development. “As companies continue to navigate the ripples from record inflation and supply chain issues, Iowa still has almost 79,000 open jobs. That far exceeds the number of unemployed in Iowa, and IWD will remain laser-focused on helping make connections between the unemployed and employers.”

Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment

Surveyed businesses in Iowa added a net 500 jobs in November, raising total nonfarm employment to 1,586,100 jobs. November marks the eighth consecutive increase in jobs added within our state. Iowa now has added 23,700 jobs since the last loss in March. Private sectors combined to shed 200 jobs in November, with hiring in leisure and hospitality and construction being offset by job losses in trade and professional services. Government saw some hiring at the state and local levels, adding 700 jobs in November. Government now is up 4,300 jobs versus last year, while total nonfarm employment combined has added 42,800 jobs annually.

Leisure and hospitality gained 2,000 jobs in November to lead all sectors. Gains were evenly split between arts, entertainment, and recreation along with accommodations and food services. This sector also has added jobs in every month since March, with 12,200 positions gained during that span. Construction added 1,000 jobs in November as firms worked later into the fall to wrap up projects this year. Despite the hiring this month, this sector has shown little trend over the past 12 months. Other gains were minor and included other services (+400) and information (+200). Job losses in November were visible across many sectors — led by trade, transportation, and utilities, which experienced layoffs in retail trade (-1,100). Part of this loss can be attributed to gas stations and convenience stores lowering staffing levels in November. Professional and business services also trended down this month (-1,000), with administrative support and waste management fueling much of the drop.  Smaller November losses included finance and insurance (-800) and education, health care and social assistance (-700).

Compared to last November, leisure and hospitality and manufacturing are tied for the most jobs gained (+13,700). Accommodations and food services has added much of the employment for leisure and hospitality industries, although arts, entertainment, and recreation has advanced by 20.8 percent during the last 12 months. Manufacturing has been resilient and steadily advanced over the year with hiring in durable goods shops alone gaining 9,000 jobs. However, November’s slight decline of 300 jobs halts 11 consecutive months of job gains stretching back to the labor dispute in 2021.

By O. Kay Henderson (Radio Iowa)

Members of a key state panel say a recession would likely have a limited impact on Iowa’s economy. They’re predicting state tax receipts will decline by 1.9% in 2023 due to cuts in the top income tax rate for individuals and corporations as well as the end of state taxation of retirement income.

Kraig Paulsen is director of state agencies that oversee state tax collections and the state budget. He’s chairman of the Revenue Estimating Conference, which met late this morning.

“I continue to be optimistic that any downturn will be weathered and, at least in Iowa, it will be relatively shallow and short in length,” Paulsen said. “Overall, the state is in an incredibly strong financial position and is well situated to manage whatever future circumstances dictate.”

Paulsen and the other two members of the Revenue Estimating Conference predict the state will collect more than $10 billion in taxes during the current fiscal year, which ends June 30th. Jennifer Acton, a senior analyst with the Legislative Services Agency, is the new member of the Revenue Estimating Conference.

“Inflation appears to be slowing and, in addition, no key Iowa economic indicators are suggesting a downturn in the economy at this time,” said Jennifer Acton, a senior analyst with the Legislative Services Agency, who is the new member of the Revenue Estimating Conference.

Action pointed to the October increase in the Iowa Leading Indicators Index. It includes things like diesel fuel consumption, unemployment claims and data on hours worked in Iowa manufacturing plants.

“This would not suggest an economy on the verge of a downturn in the near future,” she said.

Acton, though, did say it’s an “especially difficult time” to predict the future.

“Inflation appears to be slowing While there are no telltale signs of a future recession, many economists indicate that the 2023 economy may have a difficult time,” Acton said. “Despite households being squeezed by high inflation and high interest rates, many economists indicate there are signs that inflation may be moderating.”

Senator Janet Petersen, the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee in the Iowa Senate, said Iowa’s labor market continue to lag behind neighboring states and the panel’s “no-growth revenue estimate is yet another warning about Iowa’s economy.”