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Where things stand after another weekend of war

TEHRAN (AP) — Iran has named a son of its late supreme leader as his successor. U.S. President Donald Trump already had expressed disdain for Mojtaba Khamenei, calling him “unacceptable.” The Islamic Republic’s war strategy now has a new commander, and the powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has pledged allegiance.

Oil prices shot above $100 a barrel. Both sides in the war struck new targets over the weekend, including civilian ones. Bahrain accused Iran of hitting one of the desalination plants that are crucial for drinking water in Gulf countries. Israel struck oil depots in Tehran, sending up thick smoke and causing environmental alerts.

The U.S. announced another soldier’s death. Saudi Arabia announced the first deaths there. Anger grew in Arab countries over Iran’s launching of hundreds of missiles and drones around the region. The Israeli military’s chief of staff warned that the war “will take a long time.”

Here’s where things stand as the war enters its 10th day.

Iran

Iran’s announcement of a new supreme leader came after the country’s remaining leadership appeared to show a rift. President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized for attacks on neighboring countries, but hard-liners criticized that and said the war strategy would continue.

The new supreme leader had not been seen or heard from publicly since the war began. He has not made a statement in his new role. The younger Khamenei inherits both the war and domestic unrest after Iran earlier this year cracked down on some of its largest protests in half a century.

Iran did not publicly update its death toll over the weekend from the over 1,200 previously reported. Some Iranians continued to flee the country.

Israel

Israel attacked both Iran and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in neighboring Lebanon, where authorities say over a half-million people have been displaced and over 300 killed.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed “many surprises” in the next phase of the war. Israel said it destroyed the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard Air Force, which operated the ballistic missile command, and struck ballistic missile launchers and missile production facilities.

Eleven people have died in Israel since the war began. Multiple alerts continued to sound per day across Israel about incoming projectiles, almost all of them intercepted.

United States

The U.S. military warned Iranians to stay indoors, asserting that Iran was launching attacks from densely populated areas. Evidence mounted indicating that the U.S. was behind the deadly strike on a girls’ school in Iran on the first day of the war, but Trump suggested Iran was to blame.

Trump also attended the return of the remains of U.S. soldiers killed in the war. Seven have been killed.

Families of U.S. detainees in Iran worried their loved ones are at risk.

The U.S. military did not give an update over the weekend on the number of missiles and drones that Iran has fired in recent days, after saying the rate had gone down sharply. Experts said it’s possible that Iran is holding back some missiles in reserve.

Middle East

The head of the Arab League called Iran’s war strategy “reckless” as Gulf and other nations reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones in areas of their countries with no U.S. military presence.

No country other than the U.S. and Israel has said it is attacking Iran. Some countries in the region host U.S. military facilities or troops. Iran has urged countries not to allow the U.S. to attack it from their territories. A missile hit a helicopter landing pad in the U.S. Embassy complex in Iraq.

More deaths were reported. Saudi Arabia said a falling military projectile killed an Indian citizen and a Bangladeshi one. Kuwait said two border guards were killed, and the United Arab Emirates reported a driver killed.

Foreign residents and workers have made up most of the reported deaths in the Gulf. Over a dozen people have been killed there in all.

Globally

The U.S. sought to assure Americans that surging fuel prices are a short-term problem. Russia is profiting from the surge.

Many travelers and pilgrims remain stranded in the Middle East. The U.S. State Department said over 32,000 Americans have left the region since the war began.

Nervousness remained around some of the world’s busiest air hubs. Passengers waiting for flights at Dubai International Airport were ushered into train tunnels after several blasts were heard. Kuwait said fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport were targeted by drones.

More states are becoming involved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country will send experts to advise the U.S. and Middle Eastern allies on repelling Iranian drone attacks next week.

Water Summary Update: Drought watches issued as precipitation deficits continue

DES MOINES – Drought watches have been issued for northwest and southeast Iowa following a winter marked by a lack of rain and snow, according to the latest Water Summary Update.

Iowa experienced a notably dry winter, with worsening drought conditions expanding across much of the state through February. This deterioration has resulted in the northwest and southeast drought regions of Iowa being placed under a drought watch. While seasonal streamflows currently remain within normal ranges, soil moisture levels continue to decline statewide.

Iowa’s preliminary statewide February precipitation totaled 0.38 inches, or 0.79 inches below normal. Monthly totals ranged from no accumulation at several southern and northwestern stations to 1.26 inches in New Hampton, with southeastern Iowa experiencing the driest conditions as precipitation measured between 0.75 and 1.75 inches. The preliminary statewide average temperature for February was 31.3 degrees, which is 7.2 degrees above normal.

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) currently shows that most of Iowa is abnormally dry or experiencing drought conditions, with portions of southeast Iowa carrying a severe drought designation. According to Iowa’s Drought Plan, all drought regions saw conditions deteriorate in February as soil moisture remained critically dry due to growing moisture deficits and the resurgence of drought.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s March outlook indicates above-average precipitation across the entire state, and an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures. The seasonal outlook suggests continued drought in far northwestern Iowa, and a drought-free or drought removal is likely for the remainder of the state.

“Following a winter of persistent moisture deficits, Drought Regions in northwest and southeastern Iowa are now under a drought watch. The lack of both precipitation and a significant snowpack has led to substantial soil drying across the state. While the seasonal outlook predicts drought will persist in far Northwest Iowa through May, the rest of the state shows a favorable trend for improvement,” said Jessica Reese McIntyre, DNR Environmental Specialist.

For a thorough review of Iowa’s water resource trends, visit

 www.iowadnr.gov/watersummaryupdate.

Penn Central Mall Set To Host Race Car Show, March 13 & 14

OSKALOOSA — The Penn Central Mall in Oskaloosa will be the site of the annual Pre- Season Race Car Show this weekend, March 13 & 14. The show will be held Friday night from 5 to 8 pm and Saturday, 10am to 4 pm. Several bright shiny new race cars that will be in action at the Southern Iowa Speedway in 2026 will be on display. Race fans will have the opportunity to see the cars up close and talk to the drivers who will race on Wednesday’s nights at the Mahaska County Fairgrounds in Oskaloosa.

Fans will be able to pick up 2026 schedules and sign up for race ticket give aways. There will also be special activities for the youngsters. Fans will also be able to vote for the best looking race cars and trophies will be awarded to the best looking full bodied car, best open wheel car and a special Best of Show trophy will also be awarded.

Saturday, April 18th the Southern Iowa Speedway will host an open practice session with the track open to all types of race cars from 1-5pm. The first green flag of the season will wave for weekly racing with an expanded purse on Wednesday, April 29th

Several special events will highlight the 2026 Southern Iowa Speedway schedule, a return visit of the SLMR Late Models is scheduled for June 24th, two race nights again will be on slate during the Mahaska County Fair with the annual Caleb Hammond Race on Wednesday, July 15th, the popular Sprint Invades will be back for the second consecutive year on July 16th. Terry McCarl’s Front Row Challenge featuring the 410 Sprinters will be held Monday, August 10th. For the first time ever the “World of Outlaw” Late Models will tackle the Mahaska County Monster for a $12,000 to win race on Wednesday, August 26th. The season will wrap up with the annual running of the Fall Challenge on October 9 and 10. The Southern Iowa Fairboard and the Race Committee is excited to bring the very best in racing to the Southern Iowa Speedway in 2026 and we look forward to seeing you this weekend at the Penn Central Mall for the Car Show.

From Handshakes to Career Paths

OSKALOOSA, Iowa – Students at Oskaloosa Middle School invested Thursday doing something different from their typical lessons. Hallways and classrooms were filled with conversations about careers, handshakes with professionals, and questions about the future during the school’s annual Career Day.

The event brought professionals from across the community into the building, giving students a chance to explore careers and hear firsthand how different jobs connect to the learning they do today. In total, 28 organizations and businesses participated, offering students a window into fields ranging from health care and finance to theater and education.

For Oskaloosa Middle School counselors and staff, the goal is simple: help students begin thinking about the possibilities ahead of them.

“We have professionals from our region come in and explain their careers to our students so our students can explore different options for when they graduate high school,” said Catherine Ferguson, a counselor at the school.

The event has become a tradition at the middle school, now in its fifth year. While students always enjoy meeting people from different professions, Ferguson said the biggest benefit is helping them connect what they learn in school with the careers they may pursue someday.

“We do this so that students can be better aware of what careers are out there,” Ferguson said. “They can also connect what they are learning and gaining in skills now throughout middle school to future careers.”

The day began with students gathering at the George Daily Auditorium for a keynote presentation from speaker Jac Munson. His message focused on how people spend their time and the legacy they leave behind.

Alex Edwards, associate principal at Oskaloosa Middle School, said Munson’s message helped frame the purpose of the day.

“By opening up about his own journey, he helped our students realize that it’s okay for your career dreams to change as you grow,” Edwards said. “The key takeaway was thinking about how you’re going to spend your time and how you’re going to be remembered.”

After the keynote, the entire school day shifted to career exploration. Teachers incorporated career-focused activities into their classes, replacing the typical academic schedule with lessons designed to help students think about the future.

Math classes explored scholarships and financial aid college opportunities through games, Literacy classes reflected on the keynote message, Language teachers helped students build resumes, Science teachers led students in discovering their personality traits, Encore teachers supported the creation of student vision boards and taught professional email etiquette, and Social Studies teachers engaged students in living our building commitments.

The most visible part of the day took place in the gym during the “career walk.” Students moved from booth to booth, meeting professionals, guided by a bingo-style card designed to encourage conversation. Tasks included shaking hands, asking questions about a profession, or collecting a business card.

Laura Brummel, a counselor at Oskaloosa Middle School, said the activity helps students build confidence in interacting with adults and learning how to network.

“They each got a bingo card that had things like shake a professional’s hand, ask them a question about the profession or share about your own future goals,” Brummel said. “This challenge really helps students feel more confident to interact with the professionals.”

Throughout the afternoon, professionals also led classroom sessions where students could explore specific careers in greater depth.

Principal Clint Gingerich said the day reflects the school’s commitment to helping students explore possibilities early.

“The entire student’s day is focused on giving students the chance to explore different careers,” Gingerich said. “Every content area is teaching a lesson connected to careers.”

That focus on exposure and exploration is designed to build a bridge to opportunities students will encounter later in high school, including programs like Oskaloosa’s Innovation Hub. The Hub connects students with local businesses and organizations to solve real-world problems, making early experiences with professionals especially valuable.

Brummel said Career Day helps students become comfortable talking with adults in different fields, something that will matter when they begin working on community projects later.

“I think this is absolutely a great opportunity for them to network and start seeing, like, ‘Oh, I can do this. I can go and talk to these professionals,’” she said.

For students, the experience often sparks new ideas about what their future might look like.

Eighth grader Maci Graham said she enjoyed seeing how many options exist for different careers.

“I like how today can show you how you can get into good jobs for your career, and it can let you know the opportunities you can have as an adult,” Graham said.

Graham said one of her favorite stops involved theater and puppetry, where she learned about technical roles behind the scenes.

“It helps with the opportunities,” she said. “So if you don’t get into an acting position, you can do the technical stuff behind the stage.”

Another eighth grader, Olivia Spoelstra, said the event introduced her to careers she had never considered before.

“We’re experiencing a bunch of different jobs by people who work there, and it’s just a really fun way to experience different jobs for future careers that you can do,” Spoelstra said.

Spoelstra said she is currently considering becoming a teacher or an author, and the career fair helped her see more possibilities.

“This helps by showing you a bunch of different jobs that you could do that you never thought,” she said.

Ottumwa Man Charged with Attempted Murder Following Tindell Street Shooting

OTTUMWA – An Ottumwa man faces a charge of attempted murder following a shooting in the early morning hours on Friday.

The Ottumwa Police Department reports that the shooting took place on Friday, March 6, at around 4:09am. Officers were dispatched to 309 Tindell Street on a report of a male that had been shot at that address. When they arrived, they determined that 22-year-old Dashaun Marquise Scott of St. Louis, Missouri, had been shot multiple times, and that the suspect fled the scene immediately after the shooting.

Scott was transported to the Ottumwa Regional Health Center for emergency surgery. Authorities say he is currently in stable condition. 

Later that morning, at approximately 6:26am, Ottumwa Police responded to the area of North 5th Street and Pleasant Street after a vehicle crashed into a fire hydrant. The vehicle was determined to be the vehicle in which the suspect had fled the scene of the shooting.

The suspect was found less than 15 minutes later on Sheffield Street and was arrested without further incident. The suspect was identified as 27-year-old Xavier Cortez Dennis of Ottumwa.

Dennis is currently being held in the Wapello County Jail with no bond, and he faces a total of 3 felony charges, including Attempt to Commit Murder (class B felony), Going Armed with Intent (class D felony), and Possession of a Firearm by a Felon (class D felony).

US soldiers who died in Iran war remembered as devoted parents and reservists

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Sgt. 1st Class Nicole Amor was just days away from returning home to her husband and two children when a drone strike at a command center in Kuwait killed her and five other U.S. service members.

“She was almost home,” her husband, Joey Amor, said from their home in White Bear Lake, Minnesota, on Tuesday. “You don’t go to Kuwait thinking something’s going to happen, and for her to be one of the first – it hurts.”

Amor was one of four U.S. soldiers killed in the Iran war on Sunday and identified Tuesday by the Pentagon; two soldiers haven’t yet been publicly identified. The members of the Army Reserve worked in logistics and kept troops supplied with food and equipment.

They died just one day after the U.S. and Israel launched its military campaign against Iran. Iran responded by launching missiles and drones against Israel and several Gulf Arab states that host U.S. armed forces.

Those killed also included Capt. Cody Khork, 35, of Winter Haven, Florida; Sgt. 1st Class Noah Tietjens, 42, of Bellevue, Nebraska; and Sgt. Declan Coady, 20, of West Des Moines, lowa, who was posthumously promoted from specialist. No other names were released.

“These men and women all bravely volunteered to defend our country, and their sacrifice will never be forgotten,” Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll said.

All were assigned to the 103rd Sustainment Command, which provides food, fuel, water and ammunition, transport equipment and supplies.

“Sadly, there will likely be more, before it ends. That’s the way it is,” President Donald Trump said of deaths.

One of the youngest in his class

Coady had just told his father last week that he had been recommended for a promotion from specialist to sergeant, a rank he received posthumously.

He was one of the youngest people in his class but seemed to impress his instructors, his father Andrew Coady said Tuesday.

“He was very good at what he did,” he said.

Coady trained as an information technology specialist with the Army Reserves and was studying cybersecurity at Drake University in Des Moines. He was taking online classes while in Kuwait and wanted to become an officer.

“I still don’t fully think it’s real,” his sister Keira Coady said. “I just remember all of our conversations about what he was going to do when he came back.”

A mother of two who loved gardening

Amor, 39, was an avid gardener who enjoyed making salsa from the peppers and tomatoes in her garden with her son, a senior in high school. She also enjoyed rollerblading and bicycling with her fourth-grade daughter.

A week before the drone attack, Amor was moved off-base to a shipping container-style building that had no defenses, Joey Amor said.

“They were dispersing because they were in fear that the base they were on was going to get attacked and they felt it was safer in smaller groups in separate places,” he said.

He last spoke to her about two hours before she was killed. He said she was working long shifts and they had been messaging about her tripping and falling the night before.

“She just never responded in the morning,” he said.

A calling to serve his country

Khork was very patriotic and drawn from a young age to serving the U.S., his family said in a statement Tuesday.

He enlisted in the Army Reserve and joined Florida Southern College’s ROTC program.

“That commitment helped shape the course of his life and reflected the deep sense of duty that was always at the core of who he was,” said his mother, Donna Burhans, father, James Khork, and stepmother, Stacey Khork, in a statement.

Khork also loved history and had a degree in political science.

His family described him as “the life of the party, known for his infectious spirit, generous heart, and deep care for those who served alongside him and for everyone blessed to know him.”

One of Khork’s friends, Abbas Jaffer, posted on Facebook on Monday that he had lost the best person he had ever known.

“My best friend, best man, and brother gave his life defending our country overseas,” Jaffer said. Khork and Jaffer had been friends for more than 16 years.

A loving father and husband

Tietjens lived with his family in the Washington Terrace mobile home park in the Omaha suburb of Bellevue, Nebraska. He was married with a son, according to a Facebook page.

Tietjens earned a black belt in Philippine Combatives and Taekwondo and was “an instructor who gave his time, discipline, and leadership to others,” the Philippine Martial Arts Alliance said in a Facebook post.

On the mat and as a soldier, “he carried the same values: honor, discipline, service, and commitment to others,” the organization said.

Nebraska Gov. Gov. Pillen paid tribute to the family Tuesday.

“Noah stepped up to serve and defend the American people from foreign enemies around the world — a sacrifice we must never forget,” he wrote.

“We are holding the Tietjens family close in our hearts during this unbelievably difficult time and will keep them in our prayers,” he said.

Spring community trout stocking starts March 16

DES MOINES — The Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) fisheries staff will release between 1,000 to 2,000 rainbow trout in 12 lakes across Iowa in March and April as part of its cool weather trout program.

The spring community trout stockings are a great place to take kids to catch their first fish. A small hook with a nightcrawler or corn under a small bobber to casting small simple spinners, such as a Panther Martin or Mepps, is all you need to get in on the fun.

Bringing trout to cities and towns offers a “close to home” option for Iowans who might not travel to northeast Iowa to experience trout fishing. Ottumwa Park Pond, Noelridge Park Pond, Ely Pond, North Ridge Park Pond, and North Prairie Lake will also host family-friendly events to help anglers catch trout and have fun while fishing.

The popular program is supported by the sales of the trout fee. Anglers need a valid fishing license and pay the trout fee to fish for or possess trout. The daily limit is five trout per licensed angler with a possession limit of 10.

Children age 15 or younger can fish for trout with a properly licensed adult, but together, they can only keep one daily limit. Children can pay the trout fee, allowing them to keep their own daily limit.

Once you buy your trout fee, you can fish for trout all year long at any of the community trout lakes and trout streams in northeast Iowa. Find more information about Iowa trout streams on the DNR website at www.iowadnr.gov/trout.

2026 Spring Community Trout Stocking Schedule

March 16

Terra Lake, Johnston, at Noon

March 19

Jefferson Co. Park New Pond, Fairfield, at 10 a.m.

Wilson Lake, Donnellson, at Noon

Lake of the Hills, Davenport, at 10 a.m.

March 20

Liberty Centre Pond, North Liberty, at 10:30 a.m.

North Ridge Park Pond, Coralville, at 11:30 a.m.

March 21

Ottumwa Park Pond, Ottumwa, at 11 a.m.

Noelridge Park Pond, Cedar Rapids, at 9:30 a.m.

Ely Pond, Ely, at 11 a.m.

April 24

Sand Lake, Marshalltown, at Noon

April 25 

North Prairie Lake, Cedar Falls, at 10 a.m.

Heritage Pond, Dubuque, at 10:30 a.m.

Chamber Scholarship Applications Available until April 1

OSKALOOSA — High school seniors living in Mahaska County and attending any high school are eligible to apply now for a Chamber Scholarship sponsored by the Mahaska Chamber & Development Group. Information is available from one’s school counselor or the web at https://www.mahaskachamber.org/resources/scholarships/ where you will find a link to the fillable form. Scholarships are sponsored by area businesses and industries. Last year $30,500 was distributed to 25 students.

The application requests information such as participation in school and community activities and a short essay. Be prepared with a PDF of your transcript. Online applications and school transcripts are due no later than Wednesday, April 1, 2026.

“Area businesses and individuals are encouraged to contribute to the Chamber Scholars program to provide deserving students with financial support as they pursue their academic and career goals. This program would not be possible without the generous contributions we receive annually from local business leaders and individuals. We encourage more community members to get involved, as this program continues to strengthen the partnership between education and community,” Michelle Kent stated. “Another way to contribute to this special program is by participating in the annual Chamber Golf outing on Friday, May 15. Teams of four and hole sponsorships raise additional funds for the Chamber Scholars program.”

The Chamber Scholars program, now in its 30th year, continues to partner with the “52577 Scholarship.” Contributions to the program are tax deductible and can be made in any amount. If one chooses to donate $1,000 it will be awarded this year. If one wants to contribute to the perpetual scholarship fund through “52577”, any amount may be donated to be used in future years.

For further information to apply or to contribute to the fund contact the Mahaska Chamber at 641.672.2591 or email finance@mahaskachamber.org

Fairfield Tattoo Artist Arrested for Sexual Assault

FAIRFIELD – A Fairfield tattoo artist is behind bars after allegedly sexually assaulting a patron.

The Fairfield Police Department says that on February 11, officers took a report from a female victim who stated she had scheduled and paid for a tattoo appointment at “Ink Therapy.” During the course of the appointment, the victim reported that she was sexually assaulted by the individual performing the tattoo.

Officers initiated an investigation into the allegations, in which they gathered and reviewed related information, and on February 26, an arrest warrant was requested in connection with the case. The arrest warrant was granted on March 2, and later that same day, officers located 49-year-old Louis Stanley Fitzner II of Ollie, Iowa, and took him into custody without incident.

Fitzner II faces a charge of 3rd Degree Sexual Assault (class C felony) for his alleged actions. He is being held in the Jefferson County Correctional Facility on a $10,000 bond.

Iran attacks threaten US economy with more uncertainty around inflation, growth

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran add yet more question marks around a U.S. economy already buffeted by on-and-off tariffs, weak hiring, and lingering inflationary pressures.

The war has already raised oil prices and could lift prices at the pump as early as this week, but the ultimate impact on the economy and inflation will depend on the length and severity of the conflict, economists say. Should it wind down in a week or two, its economic effects would be minor and short-lived.

Yet a longer war that pushed oil past $100 a barrel for an extended period would worsen inflation, at least temporarily, while slowing growth and intensifying Americans’ unhappiness with the cost of essentials. After nearly five years of rising prices, concerns around affordability have undercut President Donald Trump’s support in polls and bolstered Democrats in recent elections.

For now, the price of a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude rose 6.3% Monday to settle at $71.23. Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 6.7% to $77.74 per barrel. An increase at that level, even if sustained, would barely lift inflation, economists said.

“While cost-conscious Americans who are dealing with an affordability crisis will not take this increase lightly, such an increase will not materially affect economic growth,” Joe Brusuelas, an economist at RSM, a consulting firm, said.

Stock prices rebounded to show a small gain Monday after initially falling sharply, a sign of optimism that the war will be short-lived.

But a longer-lasting conflict, particularly one that closed down the Strait of Hormuz at the edge of the Persian Gulf, through which roughly 25% of the world’s oil passes, could push oil past that $100 a barrel mark. Gas prices in the U.S. could then reach $3.50 a gallon, up from just under $3 on average nationwide on Monday.

Such price jumps would accelerate inflation in the U.S. and slow growth, economists said.

“Markets are right now really under-pricing the tail risk of a sustained engagement and an operation that does not wrap up quickly, restore travel through the Strait of Hormuz and get everything back to de-escalation and normal in a timely manner,” said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative and an economic adviser to the Biden White House.

Here are some ways the war could affect the economy.

Inflation has lingered even as gas prices have fallen

While some measures of inflation have cooled in recent months, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure has been stuck at about 3% for roughly a year. That is above the central bank’s 2% target, and has occurred even as gas prices fell steadily in 2025.

Should gas prices rise significantly, air fares could also rise as airlines face bigger fuel costs. Shipping would also become more expensive, which could add to grocery prices.

Natural gas prices also jumped Monday, as roughly 20% of the world’s gas travels through the Strait of Hormuz and a liquid natural gas plant was shut down in Qatar. That could raise heating prices in the U.S. Natural gas has already gotten 10% more expensive in the past year, thanks in part to spiking energy usage by data centers powering AI.

Still, economists noted that the U.S. economy is not as oil-dependent as it has been in the past, with most Americans now working in services, rather than manufacturing.

And other factors may help keep oil price increases relatively limited. Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, an oil analytics firm, pointed out that oil inventories were quite high before the conflict, which helped keep prices in check. That’s in sharp contrast to the winter of 2022, he said, when post-COVID supply chain problems had already pushed up oil costs even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a much bigger spike.

Monday’s increase “is a very minor spike relative to” what happened after Russia’s invasion, Johnston said.

Businesses may pull back amid uncertainty

If the Iran war drags on for months, it could also torpedo business confidence, which could lead companies to invest and hire less, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Financial.

“When there is an injection of new uncertainty into the business environment … that’s a hit to confidence,” she said.

The result could be similar to the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which did not raise prices as much as many economists feared, but did appear to weigh on job gains. Hiring in 2025 was the weakest, outside of a recession, since 2002.

Consumers sour further on economy

Even without a big inflation spike, a major risk for Trump is that Americans sour on his economic leadership.

According to surveys, Americans already have a gloomy outlook on the economy, largely because of the lingering effects of the price spikes of the past five years. Trump’s attempts to portray the U.S. as in a “golden age” have had little impact on those attitudes.

A protracted conflict in Iran that raised gas prices would likely make it worse, Jacquez said.

“People generally don’t think that President Trump is focused on the things that they are focused on,” Jacquez added, “and what they want him to be focused on is the price of groceries. What they think he’s focused on are things like tariffs and foreign policy.”

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