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Southern Iowa Speedway rained out 5/25

Oskaloosa, Iowa: Racing action slated for the Southern Iowa Speedway in Oskaloosa, Wednesday, May 25th, fell victim to rain that moved into the area late on Tuesday and continued into Wednesday. Racing will continue on Hall of Fame Voting Night, Wednesday, June 1st. Fans will be given ballots and will have the opportunity to vote on the 2022 Southern Iowa Speedway Hall of Fame class. The 2022 Hall of Fame Inductees will be recognized on Wednesday, July 6th.

Racing action at the Southern Iowa Speedway will resume on Wednesday, June 1st with hot laps taking to the track at 7:15 pm, racing will follow. 

Gunman kills 19 children, 2 adults in Texas school rampage

By ACACIA CORONADO and JIM VERTUNO

UVALDE, Texas (AP) — An 18-year-old gunman killed 19 children and two adults as he went from classroom to classroom at a Texas elementary school, officials said, adding to a gruesome, yearslong series of mass killings at churches, schools and stores.

The attacker was killed by a Border Patrol agent who rushed into the school without waiting for backup, according to a law enforcement official.

Tuesday’s assault at Robb Elementary School in the heavily Latino town of Uvalde was the deadliest shooting at a U.S. school since a gunman killed 20 children and six adults at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown, Connecticut, in December 2012.

Hours after the attack, families were still awaiting word on their children. At the town civic center where some gathered, the silence was broken repeatedly by screams and wailing. “No! Please, no!” one man yelled as he embraced another man.

“My heart is broken today,” said Hal Harrell, the school district superintendent. “We’re a small community, and we’re going to need your prayers to get through this.”

Gov. Greg Abbott said one of the two adults killed was a teacher.

Adolfo Cruz, a 69-year-old air conditioning repairman, was still outside the school as the sun set, seeking word on his 10-year-old great-granddaughter, Eliajha Cruz Torres.

He drove to the scene after receiving a terrifying call from his daughter shortly following the first reports of the shooting. He said other relatives were at the hospital and the civic center.

Waiting, he said, was the heaviest moment of his life.

“I hope she is alive,” Cruz said.

The attack was the latest grim moment for a country scarred by a string of massacres, coming just 10 days after a deadly, racist rampage at a Buffalo, New York, supermarket. And the prospects for any reform of the nation’s gun regulations seemed as dim, if not dimmer, than in the aftermath of the Sandy Hook deaths.

But President Joe Biden appeared ready for a fight, calling for new gun restrictions in an address to the nation hours after the attack.

“As a nation we have to ask, when in God’s name are we going to stand up to the gun lobby? When in God’s name are we going to do what has to be done?” Biden asked. “Why are we willing to live with this carnage?”

It was not immediately clear how many people in all were wounded, but Uvalde Police Chief Pete Arredondo said there were “several injuries.”

Staff members in scrubs and devastated victims’ relatives could be seen weeping as they walked out of Uvalde Memorial Hospital, which said 13 children were taken there. Another hospital reported a 66-year-old woman was in critical condition.

Officials did not immediately reveal a motive, but they identified the assailant as Salvador Ramos, a resident of the community about 85 miles (135 kilometers) west of San Antonio. Law enforcement officials said he acted alone.

Uvalde, home to about 16,000 people, is about 75 miles (120 kilometers) from the border with Mexico. Robb Elementary, which has nearly 600 students in second, third and fourth grades, is in a mostly residential neighborhood of modest homes.

The attack came as the school was counting down to the last days of the school year with a series of themed days. Tuesday was to be “Footloose and Fancy,” with students wearing nice outfits.

Ramos had hinted on social media that an attack could be coming, according to state Sen. Roland Gutierrez, who said he had been briefed by state police. He noted that the gunman “suggested the kids should watch out,” and that he had bought two “assault weapons” after turning 18.

Before heading to the school, Ramos shot his grandmother, Gutierrez said.

Other officials said that the grandmother survived and was being treated, though her condition was not known.

Investigators believe Ramos posted photos on Instagram of two guns he used in the shooting, and they were examining whether he made statements online in the hours before the assault, a law enforcement official said.

Law enforcement officers were serving multiple search warrants Tuesday night and gathering telephone and other records, the official said. Investigators were also attempting to contact Ramos’ relatives and were tracing the firearms.

The official could not discuss details of the investigation publicly and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.

The attack began about 11:30 a.m., when the gunman crashed his car outside the school and ran into the building, according to Travis Considine, a spokesman for the Texas Department of Public Safety. A resident who heard the crash called 911, and two local police officers exchanged gunfire with the shooter.

Both officers were shot. It was not immediately clear where on the campus that confrontation occurred or how much time elapsed before more authorities arrived on the scene.

One Border Patrol agent who was working nearby when the shooting began rushed into the school without waiting for backup and shot and killed the gunman, who was behind a barricade, according to a law enforcement official speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk about it.

The agent was wounded but able to walk out of the school, the law enforcement official said.

Meanwhile, teams of Border Patrol agents raced to the school, including 10 to 15 members of a SWAT-like tactical and counterterrorism unit, said Jason Owens, a top regional official with the Border Patrol.

He said some area agents have children at Robb Elementary.

“It hit home for everybody,” he said.

Condolences poured in from leaders around the world. Pope Francis pleaded that it was time say ”‘enough’ to the indiscriminate trade of weapons!” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba of Ukraine, which is at war with Russia after Moscow invaded, said that his nation also knows “the pain of losing innocent young lives.”

The tragedy in Uvalde was the deadliest school shooting in Texas history, and it added to a grim tally in the state, which has been the site of some of the deadliest shootings in the U.S. over the past five years.

In 2018, a gunman fatally shot 10 people at Santa Fe High School in the Houston area. A year before that, a gunman at a Texas church killed more than two dozen people during a Sunday service in the small town of Sutherland Springs. In 2019, another gunman at a Walmart in El Paso killed 23 people in a racist attack targeting Hispanics.

The shooting came days before the National Rifle Association annual convention was set to begin in Houston. Abbott and both of Texas’ U.S. senators were among elected Republican officials who were the scheduled speakers at a Friday leadership forum sponsored by the NRA’s lobbying arm.

In the years since Sandy Hook, the gun control debate in Congress has waxed and waned. Efforts by lawmakers to change U.S. gun policies in any significant way have consistently faced roadblocks from Republicans and the influence of outside groups such as the NRA.

A year after Sandy Hook, Sens. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, and Patrick J. Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican, negotiated a bipartisan proposal to expand the nation’s background check system. But the measure failed in a Senate vote, without enough support to clear a 60-vote filibuster hurdle.

Last year, the House passed two bills to expand background checks on firearms purchases. One bill would have closed a loophole for private and online sales. The other would have extended the background check review period. Both languished in the 50-50 Senate, where Democrats need at least 10 Republican votes to overcome objections from a filibuster.

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This story was first published on May 24, 2022. It was corrected to reflect that state Sen. Roland Gutierrez said the gunman shot his grandmother before going to the school; he did not say the gunman killed his grandmother. It was also updated to correct the spelling of the name of the 10-year-old great-granddaughter.

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Eugene Garcia and Dario Lopez-Mills in Uvalde, Jake Bleiberg in Dallas, Ben Fox, Michael Balsamo and Eric Tucker in Washington, Paul J. Weber in Austin, Juan Lozano in Houston, Gene Johnson in Seattle and Rhonda Shafner in New York contributed to this report.

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More on the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas: https://apnews.com/hub/school-shootings

Courts stymie abortion bans in Iowa, other GOP-led states

By THOMAS BEAUMONT and DAVID PITT

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — With a staunch anti-abortion Republican governor and large GOP legislative majorities, Iowa would seem poised to ban abortion if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.

There’s just one catch: a 2018 Iowa Supreme Court ruling that established the right to abortion under the state constitution.

“I don’t know if the people of Iowa know that things aren’t going to change immediately if Roe. v. Wade is overturned,” said state Rep. Sandy Salmon, a Republican and farm manager from northeast Iowa who has made abortion restrictions a cornerstone of her five legislative terms.

Supreme courts in a handful of states, including others controlled by Republicans, have recognized the right to abortion. But in no state is the issue more immediate than Iowa, where Republicans are calling for a state high court with new, conservative justices to reverse a decision made just four years ago.

The Iowa court’s decision, due within weeks, is an example of the complexities that loom in states should the U.S. Supreme Court overturn its 1973 decision that legalized abortion nationwide. Specifically, it highlights the inevitable confrontation between new abortion bans being prepared in anticipation of Roe’s reversal and state constitutions.

“There are states where this is to some extent unknown and an issue that state courts will likely have to confront,” said Helene Krasnoff, vice president of public policy, litigation and law for abortion rights advocates Planned Parenthood Federation of America. “But this is an issue that’s present in Iowa in this very moment.”

The Iowa Supreme Court decision that’s under consideration struck down a 2017 law signed by then-Gov. Terry Branstad requiring a woman to wait 72 hours before receiving an abortion. The court ruled 5-2 that an abortion is a fundamental right protected by the state constitution’s guarantee of liberty.

“Autonomy and dominion over one’s body go to the very heart of what it means to be free,” wrote then-Chief Justice Mark Cady, who died in 2019. “Implicit in the concept of ordered liberty is the ability to decide whether to continue or terminate a pregnancy.”

Since that decision, Branstad’s successor, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, has signed other restrictions, including outlawing abortion once cardiac activity is detected in the embryo and requiring a 24-hour waiting period. Both measures were struck down in state district court. Reynolds appealed the waiting-period decision to the Iowa Supreme Court last year.

In the years since Cady’s opinion, Reynolds has appointed four of the court’s seven members. The Republican-controlled Legislature also gave her more control over the process of selecting the panel that recommends potential nominees.

Drake University Law School professor Sally Frank said if the court were to overturn a right established only four years ago, it “would give an even more political look to a decision here than the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Yet abortion opponents argued that court rulings in a half-dozen states, including Iowa, are examples of laws inappropriately established by judges rather than elected officials.

“This case presents the opportunity for the Iowa Supreme Court to return the issue back to the people to decide through their elected representatives in the Legislature,” said Mallory Carroll, a spokeswoman for the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List.

Polls indicate support for keeping abortion legal. The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll found in September that 57% supported keeping abortion legal in most or all cases, compared with 38% who said it should be illegal in most or all cases. According to AP VoteCast, a 2020 survey of the electorate, 65% of Iowa voters said the U.S. Supreme Court should leave Roe v. Wade as it is, while a third said it should be overturned.

Reynolds has said she is “proud of the legislation she signed in 2018,” including the ban on abortions once cardiac activity is detected, as early as six weeks and before many women know they are pregnant. While the measure included exceptions to protect the life of the mother and for pregnancies that are the result of incest or rape, Reynolds recently declined to endorse any exceptions.

“I’m not going to set any parameters,” she told reporters last week. “We have a ruling before the Iowa Supreme Court and we’re going to wait and see what they do, and that actually will affect what our next steps are moving forward.”

Supreme courts in Alaska, Florida, Kansas, Montana and Minnesota have ruled that their constitutions protect the right to abortion. Among them, Republicans hold legislative majorities and the governorships in Florida and Montana.

In Montana, a challenge to abortion restrictions is before the state supreme courts.

Majority Republicans in the Kansas Legislature are seeking to invalidate a 2019 state Supreme Court decision that declared access to abortion a “fundamental right” with a referendum on the August primary ballot to amend the state constitution.

Iowa Republicans also are pursuing a constitutional amendment that specifies the state constitution does not recognize, grant, or secure a right to abortion. The amendment could not stop the Legislature from enacting a statutory right to abortion, but would present an obstacle to any court weighing what the state would be required to enforce.

The measure needs a second approval in the Legislature and will likely come up next year, Salmon, the GOP state lawmaker, said. If approved it would go before voters, probably in 2024.

It’s the removal of the abortion guarantee in the 2018 court ruling that would clear the way for lawmakers to ban the procedure, Salmon’s ultimate goal.

“That means that abortion would not be a service offered in this state,” Salmon said.

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Associated Press polling reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this story.

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This version corrects the last name of the spokeswoman for the Susan B. Anthony List to Carroll instead of Clark.

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This story has been corrected show challenges to abortion restrictions are only before the Montana Supreme Court, and to show the correct the spelling of Krasnoff.

Miller asks for murder trial to be moved

One of the two teenagers accused of killing a Fairfield High Spanish teacher is asking that his trial be moved.  Attorneys for 16-year-old Willard Miller filed court papers Monday (5/23) asking for the change of venue.  Miller and 17-year-old Jeremy Goodale are both charged with first degree murder in the death last November of 66-year-old Nohema Graber.  Miller’s attorneys are also asking that some evidence in the case be suppressed.  A hearing on that has been scheduled for July 7.

No moratorium on land seizures in Iowa for carbon pipelines

BY 

RADIO IOWA – A temporary moratorium on the use of eminent domain to seize property along carbon pipeline routes passed the House in March, but it was never considered in the Iowa Senate.

The plan would have prevented pipeline developers from filing an application with the Iowa Utilities Board before February 1, 2023, in order to acquire land where property owners are refusing to grant access. Representative Bruce Hunter, a Democrat from Des Moines, suggested lawmakers played a type of shell game with Iowans who wanted some assurances their land won’t be seized against their wishes.

“We didn’t do anything for the farmers on this pipeline issue,” Hunter said. “Look what we’ve done: beat our chest and then con ’em.”

Republican Representative Bobby Kaufmann of Wilton said the mere threat of a moratorium got pipeline developers to assure him they won’t seek eminent domain authority until next March.

“We sent a message that we’re willing to act if property rights are attempted to be infringed on,” Kaufmann said.

And Kaufmann said state utility regulators have also told him their review of any eminent domain requests for carbon pipelines won’t start until after the 2023 legislature convenes.

At Davos, climate debate over role of oil in ‘going green’

By PETER PRENGAMAN

DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) — As government officials, corporate leaders and other elites at the World Economic Forum grapple with how to confront climate change and its devastating effects, a central question is emerging: to what extent can oil and gas companies be part of a transition to lower-carbon fuels?

In different times the question could have been academic, the kind of thing critics of the forum, which takes place in a tony ski village in the Swiss Alps, would say had no relevance to the real world. But today, the question is both practical and urgent, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced many countries that depended on Russian oil and gas to make swift changes to energy supplies.

The debate comes as examples of acutely felt impacts of climate change multiply, including recent heat waves in Southeast Asia to flooding in parts of South America. Meanwhile, the world’s top climate scientists have repeatedly warned that increased investment in fossil fuels are hurting chances to keep warming to limit warming to 1.5 C (2.7 F), and thus avoid even more devastating effects.

“We should not allow a false narrative to be created that what has happened in Ukraine somehow obviates the need to move forward and address the climate crisis,” said U.S. climate envoy John Kerry on Tuesday, speaking on a panel about the “net zero” goal.

Kerry added that it was possible to both meet the need of increased energy from fossil fuels in the short-term, particularly in Europe, and stay on course to reduce emissions over the coming years.

Meanwhile, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen made a different argument to urgently move toward renewable energies: she warned the 27-nation bloc should avoid becoming dependent on untrustworthy countries, like it did with fossil fuels from Russia, as it moves toward a greener economy.

She said the “economies of the future” will no longer rely on oil and coal but the green and digital transitions will rely on other materials like lithium, silicon metal or rare earth permanent magnets which are required for batteries, chips, electric vehicles or wind turbines.

“For many of them, we rely on a handful of producers in the world. So, we must avoid falling into the same trap as with oil and gas. We should not replace old dependencies with new ones.”

Von der Leyen added that the war in Ukraine has strengthened Europe’s determination to get rid of Russian fossil fuels rapidly. EU countries have approved an embargo on coal imports from Russia but member countries have yet to find a deal on sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas.

Attendees in Davos this week will discuss several other high-priority issues, like the Russia-Ukraine war, the threat of rising hunger worldwide, inequality and persistent health crises.

That includes Turkey’s pushback to Finland and Sweden applying for NATO membership. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said at Davos that a delegation from his country and Sweden will travel to the Turkish capital Wednesday for talks.

Both Haavisto and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in separate comments at the gathering that they believe they can overcome Turkey’s concerns about what it sees as Finland’s and Sweden’s support for groups it considers terrorists.

“We have to do what we always do in NATO, and that is to sit down and address concerns when allies express concerns,” Stoltenberg said.

But even in discussions of those issues, climate change was often ever present, as was the tension over what role oil and gas companies may play in a transition to green energy.

On Monday and again on Tuesday, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said the urgent energy needs of the moment should not turn into an excuse to make long-term investments in fossil fuel exploration and extraction, which has spiked in recent months.

Instead, Birol argued the emphasis needed to be a fast shift to renewable energies, an increase in nuclear where possible, stopping leaks of methane, one of the most powerful greenhouse gases, and lowering personal consumption, like turning down the thermostat a few degrees.

“Some people may use the invasion of Ukraine as an excuse for fossil fuel investments. That will forever close the door to reach our climate targets” to reduce emissions that are heating up the planet, he said.

Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum a major oil company, countered that oil and gas industries had a central role to play in the transition to renewable energy.

Instead of talk about moving away from fossil fuels, Hollub said the focus should be on making fossil fuels cleaner by reducing emissions. She said Occidental had invested heavily in wind and solar energy and planned to build the largest direct air capture facility in the world in the Permian Basin. Direct air capture is a process that pulls carbon dioxide out of the air and buries it deep in the ground.

“The U.S. can provide ample resources to the rest of the world. However, it’s becoming more and more difficult to do that because of the fact that we are getting a lot of headwinds,” she said on Monday. “One is the belief that we can end the use of oil and gas sooner rather than later.”

Joe Manchin, a U.S. senator from West Virginia who has opposed a major bill on climate change proposed by President Joe Biden, said Monday that fossil fuels were key to ensure energy security, and America had the resources to help ensure such security for the world.

“We can’t do it by abandoning the fossil fuel industry,” said Manchin, a Democrat, adding that no transition could take place until alternatives were fully in place.

Many energy experts argue that viable alternatives are already in place. For example, the cost of wind and solar have come down considerably in recent decades while efficiencies of both have dramatically increased. At the same time, other more nascent technologies have promise but need massive investment to develop.

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Associated Press journalists Kelvin Chan and Jamey Keaten in Davos and Dana Beltaji in London and Samuel Petrequin in Brussels contributed to this report.

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Peter Prengaman is The Associated Press’ global climate and environment news director and can be followed at: twitter.com/peterprengaman

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Legislature approves $5.5 million budget boost for UI, ISU, UNI

BY 

RADIO IOWA – Legislators will return to the state capitol today to put the finishing touches on state spending plans for the budgeting year that begins July 1. Republicans who hold majorities in the House and Senate have agreed to provide Iowa’s 15 area community colleges with $6.5 million more for the next academic year.

The three state universities will get a five-and-a-half million dollar boost, “which brings them up to $575 million in this budget,” said Republican Senator Chris Cournoyer of LeClaire, who that’s “not a trivial amount.”

Democrats like Representative Cindy Winckler of Davenport say tuition at the University of Iowa, Iowa State University and the University of Northern Iowa will have to go up, as state support of the universities today is less than it was in 2009. “It is unfortunate that we have such a backward view of our role in funding education in this state,” Winckler said.

Senator Herman Quirmbach, a Democrat from Ames, said the state universities are being starved. “To continue to bleed resources out of these universities is going to cause long term damage to this state,” Quirmbach said, “long beyond any of us in our tenure here in the Senate.”

Representative David Kerr, a Republican from Morning Sun, said he fought with Senators to get as much as he could for scholarships for students planning to be teachers or mental health professionals, but wasn’t able to get as much as he had hoped in his final year as a legislator. “What do I know? I’m just going to go home, turn the TV on and say: ‘What they heck did they do again?’” Kerr said. “…Why can’t certain things be done together?”

Tenth historical building marker in Oskaloosa to be unveiled Thursday

A new historical building marker will be unveiled in Oskaloosa this week.  Ann Brouwer, who has led the building marker project, talks about the newest marker.

“We’re going to do the Oskaloosa Savings Bank Building, which was built originally in 1875.  It now houses the Book Vault.  We want to unveil this historical marker this coming Thursday at 6pm at the Book Vault.  And after that ceremony, we will be meeting in The Alley to have a celebration.  This marks the end of our ten historical markers that we committed to when my ad hoc group and I started this project.”

Brouwer says a great many volunteers researched the buildings’ histories…and community donations helped make the historical markers possible.  Again, the newest unveiling will be Thursday night (5/26) at 6 at the Book Vault in Oskaloosa.

After 3 months of war, life in Russia has profoundly changed

The Associated Press

When Vladimir Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, war seemed far away from Russian territory. Yet within days the conflict came home — not with cruise missiles and mortars but in the form of unprecedented and unexpectedly extensive volleys of sanctions by Western governments and economic punishment by corporations.

Three months after the Feb. 24 invasion, many ordinary Russians are reeling from those blows to their livelihoods and emotions. Moscow’s vast shopping malls have turned into eerie expanses of shuttered storefronts once occupied by Western retailers.

McDonald’s — whose opening in Russia in 1990 was a cultural phenomenon, a shiny modern convenience coming to a dreary country ground down by limited choices — pulled out of Russia entirely in response to its invasion of Ukraine. IKEA, the epitome of affordable modern comforts, suspended operations. Tens of thousands of once-secure jobs are now suddenly in question in a very short time.

Major industrial players including oil giants BP and Shell and automaker Renault walked away, despite their huge investments in Russia. Shell has estimated it will lose about $5 billion by trying to unload its Russian assets.

While the multinationals were leaving, thousands of Russians who had the economic means to do so were also fleeing, frightened by harsh new government moves connected to the war that they saw as a plunge into full totalitarianism. Some young men may have also fled in fear that the Kremlin would impose a mandatory draft to feed its war machine.

But fleeing had become much harder than it once was — the European Union’s 27 nations, along with the United States and Canada had banned flights to and from Russia. The Estonian capital of Tallinn, once an easy long-weekend destination 90 minutes by air from Moscow, suddenly took at least 12 hours to reach on a route through Istanbul.

Even vicarious travel via the Internet and social media has narrowed for Russians. Russia in March banned Facebook and Instagram — although that can be circumvented by using VPNs — and shut access to foreign media websites, including the BBC, the U.S. government-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.

After Russian authorities passed a law calling for up to 15 years’ imprisonment for stories that include “fake news” about the war, many significant independent news media shut down or suspended operations. Those included the Ekho Moskvy radio station and Novaya Gazeta, the newspaper whose editor Dmitry Muratov shared the most recent Nobel Peace Prize.

The psychological cost of the repressions, restrictions and shrinking opportunities could be high on ordinary Russians, although difficult to measure. Although some public opinion polls in Russia suggest support for the Ukraine war is strong, the results are likely skewed by respondents who stay silent, wary of expressing their genuine views.

Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Moscow Center wrote in a commentary that Russian society right now is gripped by an “aggressive submission” and that the degradation of social ties could accelerate.

“The discussion gets broader and broader. You can call your compatriot — a fellow citizen, but one who happens to have a different opinion — a “traitor” and consider them an inferior kind of person. You can, like the most senior state officials, speculate freely and quite calmly on the prospects of nuclear war. (That’s) something that was certainly never permitted in Soviet times during Pax Atomica, when the two sides understood that the ensuing damage was completely unthinkable,” he wrote.

“Now that understanding is waning, and that is yet another sign of the anthropological disaster Russia is facing,” he said.

The economic consequences have yet to fully play out.

In the early days of the war, the Russian ruble lost half its value. But government efforts to shore it up have actually raised its value to higher than its level before the invasion.

But in terms of economic activity, “that’s a completely different story,” said Chris Weafer, a veteran Russia economy analyst at Macro-Advisory.

“We see deterioration in the economy now across a broad range of sectors. Companies are warning that they’re running out of inventories of spare parts. A lot of companies put their workers on part time work and others are warning to them they have to shut down entirely. So there’s a real fear that unemployment will rise during the summer months, that there will be a big drop in consumption and retail sales and investment,” he told The Associated Press.

The comparatively strong ruble, however heartening it may seem, also poses problems for the national budget, Weafer said.

“They receive their revenue effectively in its foreign currency from the exporters and their payments are in rubles. So the stronger the ruble, then it means the less money that they actually have to spend,” he said. “(That) also makes Russian exporters less competitive, because they’re more expensive on the world stage.”

If the war drags on, more companies could exit Russia. Weafer suggested that those companies who have only suspended operations might resume them if a cease-fire and peace deal for Ukraine are reached, but he said the window for this could be closing.

“If you walk around shopping malls in Moscow, you can see that many of the fashion stores, Western business groups, have simply pulled down the shutters. Their shelves are still full, the lights are still on. They’re simply just not open. So they haven’t pulled out yet. They’re waiting to see what happens next,” he explained.

Those companies will soon be pressed to resolve the limbo that their Russian businesses are in, Weafer said.

“We are now getting to the stage where companies are starting to run out of time, or maybe run out of patience,” he said.

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Follow all AP stories on the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine.

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