By O. Kay Henderson (Radio Iowa)

University of Northern Iowa political science professor Donna Hoffmann says three of Iowa’s four congressional races were considered competitive at the beginning of the year and seem to be among the country’s most competitive as election day draws near.

“435 races for the House of Representatives every two years, with Iowa having two or three seats in that almost every single cycle is really unusual,” Hoffman said.

Hoffmann published research in early 2023 suggesting recent electoral history and Iowa’s non-partisan process for drawing district lines indicate three of Iowa’s congressional districts are prone to have competitive races. “Especially if you look at, for example, the northwest Iowa segment of Iowa even if you go back 20 years,” Hoffman said. “A Republican represents it, then a Democrat, then a Republican, then a Democrat, then a Republican.”

The second congressional district covers 22 counties and includes the cities of Mason City, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Dubuque. There are four candidates on the ballot in the second district Democrat Lindsay James, Republican Joe Mitchell, Libertarian Rick Stewart and independent Dave Bushaw. “Of course we don’t see a lot of good polling in terms of House districts, generally speaking,” Hoffman said. “I don’t have a good sense of how that particular race is going to go. I think it is highly competitive…but voters have a Libertarian candidate, they have a no-party candidate.”

About a third of voters in the second congressional district have either registered as no-party independents or with a third-party, like the Libertarian Party.

In Iowa’s third congressional district, 36% of registered voters are Republicans and 33% are Democrats. In the first district, there are 4.5% more Republicans compared to Democrats. In Iowa’s fourth congressional district, nearly half of registered voters are Republicans and political forecasters predict a Republican will easily win the seat.